p(doom) estimator
"p(doom)" is the rough probability a researcher puts on advanced AI going catastrophically wrong. This is not a forecast and not science; it is a way to make your own assumptions explicit and see what they imply when you combine them.
Your implied p(doom)
0%
A toy aggregator, not a prediction. Real experts range from near 0% to over 50% and disagree sharply.
The number is an argument, not an answer
The useful part is watching how much the coordination slider moves things: a lot of the risk is not technical but social, a question of whether we race or cooperate. That is the real subject of Twelve Doors, where the same forces decide which of twelve AI futures we walk into. Move the sliders to where you honestly believe they sit, then ask whether you are comfortable with what falls out.