Reliability in Chaos: The New Skill
In a fast-changing world, what you know matters less than what you can reliably do in a situation you've never seen before.
We used to hire people for what they knew. “I know Java.” “I know GAAP accounting.” “I know contract law.”
We tested them on syntax. We tested them on regulations. We tested them on facts.
But knowledge is now a commodity. The AI knows all of that. It knows every line of Java code ever written. It knows every tax law in every jurisdiction. It knows the entire corpus of human knowledge.
So, what is the human for?
The Shift to Capability
Today, we hire people for what they can reliably do in new situations.
It’s not about recall. It’s about execution under pressure.
- When the server crashes in a way no one has ever seen before (a “Black Swan” event), can you fix it?
- When a competitor launches a product that changes the market overnight, can you pivot the strategy without freezing?
- When the AI gives you three plausible but contradictory answers, can you synthesize the truth?
Action Under Uncertainty
This is the core of national productivity. It’s not about how many facts your citizens have memorized. It’s about their Adaptive Capacity.
Can they take a vague, scary problem? Can they break it down into manageable chunks? Can they use their AI agents to gather intelligence? Can they execute a solution?
Can they do it without panic? Can they do it ethically?
The Un-Googleable Skill
You can Google syntax. You can Prompt an LLM for a definition. You can’t Google “composure.” You can’t prompt an LLM for “courage.” You can’t automate “negotiating a peace treaty with a hostile partner who hates you.”
The future belongs to the Reliable Actor. The person who walks into chaos and creates order. The person who doesn’t just know the map, but knows how to navigate when the map is wrong.
